Barack Obama owes much of his political success to his early and vocal opposition to the war in Iraq, campaigning on the promise of a timeline for U.S. troops to leave the country. Two weeks after his election, the Iraqis themselves signed an agreement with the outgoing Bush administration requiring
that all troops leave Iraqi cities and the country by 2012. Obama, for his part, stands by his call for a 16-month timetable. Still, Obama's position offers considerable wiggle room, allowing for a continued presence based on advice from military commanders. Britain, the largest non-U.S. force remaining in the country with 4,000 soldiers, will likely remove all but a few hundred over the next 12 months.
Commanders are hoping the war will continue to wind down, but there are a number of factors that could reverse the recent progress. For one thing, the sectarian fissures between Kurdish, Shiite, and Sunni communities that plunged the nation into chaos between 2005 and 2007 still linger just below the surface and could erupt again with a startling and deadly ferocity.
There are a host of outstanding issues that could trigger a return to sectarian bloodletting, including the disposition of the disputed northern oil-rich city of Kirkuk, the fate of a cease-fire between the Iraqi and American militaries and a Shiite militia controlled by cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, and the future role for the unofficial Sunni militia called the Awakening. Beyond those questions, there are the upcoming elections, which have the potential—depending on the results—to further alienate the Sunni minority from the Shiite-dominated government.
Beyond the sectarian strife, there is fierce competition within the larger religious groups. Two of the country's largest and most powerful Shiite groups—the nominally secular, though Shiite-dominated Iraqi Army and several criminal militias, many loyal to Sadr—fought a pitched battle over the southern port city of Basra last spring and the result, experts say, was largely a stalemate. The Iraqi Army eventually regained control of the city when militants stopped fighting, but only after Iraqi regulars had turned and fled during battle, American air power was called in, and Iran aided in brokering a de facto truce.
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